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DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 01/14 06:13
Mixed Trading Activity Until Cash Provides Direction
Cattle futures took a breather Monday with traders deciding to take some
profits after the incredible run higher. Boxed beef continued to remain strong.
Hog futures fell back from their highs but managed a higher close in all but
the June contract.
Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Steady Futures: Higher Live Equiv: $243.23 +$0.90*
Hogs: Higher Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $95.78 -$1.16**
*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer
revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent
changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was not surprising to see a price retracement Monday after the incredible
run higher in livestock futures. Traders remain bullish on the market, but this
lofty level increases the concern over the amount of upside potential
remaining. Traders want further confirmation that higher prices will unfold and
may wait until cash cattle trade before deciding direction. The idea is that
cash will trade higher this week as the packers still seem short-bought and the
slaughter pace has improved. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $0.51
and select up $3.43. The choice/select price spread is now at $15.78. Feeder
cattle remain in strong demand and are holding a large premium to live cattle.
Higher corn prices may have impacted futures to some extent. The Commitments of
Traders report showed fund traders adding 13,288 long futures to increase their
net-long positions to 144,486 contracts. They added 4,248 futures contracts to
feeder cattle, bringing their net-long position to 24,592 contracts and a new
record-long futures position.
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